WAR, PEACE & PEOPLE

Monday, August 07, 2006

We don’t yet understand the scale of the disaster that is the American intervention in Iraq. It’s time we did.

Iraq is such a disaster, from the U.S. point of view, that I don’t think either the extent, or the significance of it, has yet dawned on the American public. Certainly, the polls indicate that a majority of American citizens is concerned, but there is scant evidence that people appreciate the cataclysm that President Bush and his Administration have inflicted upon both Iraq and this country. If they did, the dominant emotions would be outrage and fear; and such feelings would be well justified.

In truth, that day may never happen because this Administration is more secretive than most - and lies without conscience or shame; the media continue to be corralled by their corporate owners, and negligent into the bargain; and Congress, which funded the whole miserable business without thought or care, and yet has legal oversight responsibilities for it, is complicit.

Let me list just some of the elements of the disaster. Its scale, over time, has the potential to be as disastrous for the U.S. as Japan’s ill advised decision to attack Pearl Harbor in 1944. True, the consequences may not be that severe, if we are very lucky, but the price, even under a best case scenario, will be horrendous.

  • After nearly three and half years of U.S. Occupation of Iraq, all we have to show for our efforts is a destabilized and impoverished Iraq sinking rapidly into the maelstrom of a civil war. Further, Iraq’s much touted democratically elected government has shown itself to be an ineffective sham capable of meeting only under the protection of American arms – which predictable situation, just by itself, destroys its credibility with the very people it is supposed to be governing. The military may claim that we have never lost a tactical engagement but, whether literally true or not, the reality on the ground is that we have suffered yet another strategic defeat just like Vietnam.

  • We have destabilized the entire Middle East to the point where a regional war, or worse, is a strong possibility. In fact Sunni states, such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia, are already helping the Iraqi Sunnis. As for Sunni, but officially secular, Turkey, it has been transformed from a strong NATO ally to a nation whose people now largely hate and despise the U.S., and where Islamic fundamentalism is on the rise. The list of other potential participants in a Middle Eastern conflagration is too long to list in full, but includes Syria, the Lebanon, Egypt, Pakistan, Afghanistan and so on. Even Indonesia, with its large Muslim population, has been making concerned noises. There is the potential here for something even more dangerous than a regional war.

  • We have vastly strengthened Iran’s influence throughout the Middle East despite the fact that Iran is not only a proven enemy of the U.S. but also has imperial goals in a region which is of major strategic significance to this country because of oil. The Shia Crescent, dominated by Iran, is now a very real possibility.

  • Our occupation of Iraq has shown us to be consistently untruthful, brutal, corrupt, racist, indifferent to the rule of law, decadent, militarily incompetent, and incapable of protecting our friends. A consequence of all this has been that not only have we lost the moral high ground, to the point where we no longer have any credibility in much of the world, but we have shown that we are vulnerable to asymmetric warfare and can be taken.

  • By demonstrating publicly and regularly that we are at least as bad as Osama bin Laden and other terrorists have stated, at least in Al Jazeera image terms, we have vastly strengthened the terrorist cause, and increased the terrorist threat, and their access to major financing, for decades to come. In fact, our actions have fanned the flames of Islamic Fundamentalism beyond their wildest dreams.

  • Despite the U.S. being "The beacon of democracy," the media center of the world, and a nation which supposedly has more expertise in communications than any other, we have lost the media battle utterly to the point where our enemies have a virtual dominance of influence over not just Middle Eastern opinion, but, albeit to a lesser extent, over much of the rest of the world. Given the outpouring of sympathy for us after 9/11, and the general approval of our initial actions in Afghanistan, the loss of all that good will demonstrates quite remarkable insensitivity and incompetence.

  • We have wrecked the Iraqi economy, and done severe damage to our own, by spending over $400 billion so far and by incurring liabilities which may bring that total to over a trillion dollars even if we start pulling out immediately. To compound the problem, these funds have been borrowed, so carry interest, and will have to be repaid in the years ahead at the very time when demographics are eroding the tax base. Such borrowing is almost invariably inflationary and such trends have already started. Finally, to add insult to injury, we have borrowed much of this money from nations such as China who are our strategic competitors.

  • Oil was under $30 a barrel before our invasion of Iraq in 2003. It is now over $75 a barrel, an increase of over 250%, a financial blow of extraordinary significance to the average American – and just about every other human being on the planet – and one which will not only fuel inflation just by itself but which also is pouring untold billions into the coffers of our enemies.

  • We have killed, injured, or imprisoned so many Iraqis – people we were supposedly liberating – to the point where there is scarcely a family in the country which has not been directly affected by tragedy. Precise numbers of those killed are not known but are variously estimated at between 50,000 and 150,000.

  • The Iraq War & Occupation has cost the lives of approaching 2,600 U.S. troops and close to 20,000 have been physically injured to date with tens of thousands more needing some kind of psychological treatment. The costs, both human and financial, of such casualties to families, friends, and the Nation over the decades ahead are incalculable.

  • We have allowed our ambitions in Iraq to distract us from the very real requirements of the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan – a country which, unlike Iraq, was genuinely tied in to 9/11 and where in 2001 we had enjoyed considerable initial success. A consequence of this neglect has been a weakening of Afghanistan’s fledgling democratic government and a rebirth of the Taliban through the active support of certain powerful elements in Pakistan, a Muslim nuclear state. Indeed, the Taliban have not just been given refuge in Pakistan but they have re-emerged, trained and re-armed, in considerable strength. Of course, according to the Bush Administration, Pakistan is an ally in the War on Terror which begs the question of why it remains such a haven for the Taliban. One then has to realize that Pakistan abuts Iran, a Moslem state with nuclear ambitions, to appreciate the seriousness of the error we have made in neglecting Afghanistan.

  • Finally, Americans need to realize that apart from strengthening our enemies, our Iraq misadventure has left us with a tired, worn-out and disillusioned military whose equipment now needs to be replaced at vast expense across the board. What does vast expense mean? Hundreds of billions. How will this be funded? By borrowings which will eventually have to be re-paid by the American taxpayer.

Quite how an exercise which strengthens our enemies, and leaves us weaker, serves the National Interest is a matter the American voter may care to ponder.

2 Comments:

  • Glad to see you blogging again. Couldn't agree more. Too bad that few understand how bad it is.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at Saturday, August 19, 2006  

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